What chance do the three Christian parties have in the upcoming election? It’s a question that Dr Raymond Miller, Associate Professor of Political Studies at the University of Auckland, has been considering. He’s pessimistic about any of the parties winning an electorate seat or reaching the 5 percent that would give them seats in Parliament.
“It would be difficult enough to get votes if there was just one Christian party representing the views of conservative Christians; but there are now United Future, The Family Party and the Kiwi Party to split the vote. Back in 1996, there were two Christian parties that formed a coalition that allowed them to get to 4 percent; still not enough to get seats.
“In 2002, there was Christian support for United Future, with several of the elected candidates coming from a conservative evangelical tradition. It wasn’t exclusively a Christian party but it had a Christian values base. In both the 1996 and 2002 elections, the Christian parties avoided the kind of competition that will exist in 2008.”
Raymond also questions whether demand for Christian parties exists. He says University of Auckland surveys show that three quarters of people who see themselves as being religious express satisfaction with the current party system and see no need for setting up new political parties to represent their interests. “What’s interesting is that [while] there is no evidence that there is a significant following for the people setting up Christian parties, they clearly have a personal ambition around being elected to Parliament. The people setting up these parties are former or present MPs.”
Raymond says those on the centre and left of the political spectrum with Christian convictions are by and large working happily within the present party system. “The ones who are unhappy with the system tend to take an extreme view on social issues and come up with a morally conservative right wing agenda.”
Political naivety is a problem for Christian parties, says Raymond. “Gordon Copeland for instance has made a number of quite basic mistakes since he broke away from United Future. A Christian party was attempted last year and it fell apart before it even got started.”
It concerns Raymond that sometimes the Christian parties almost claim to represent people of Christian belief. “I think they look at how many people attend church (around 13 percent of the population) and think ‘there’s our constituency’, when in fact a great majority of that population would not consider voting for these parties simply because they stand for things that many Christians are fundamentally opposed to.”
Raymond is the editor and author of a number of books on politics and has collaborated on a number of election studies. In 2008 he is co-authoring a
book on the decline and renewal of democratic governance and a survey on attitudes to political representation and the role of MPs.